Tuesday, October 17, 2006

House GOP Incumbents Hold Financing Edge

Today's Washington Post reports that GOP House incumbents in close contests hold an edge in campaign finance over Democratic challengers, which might give them some financial power to stem out-party gains in the midterms:

Despite a rush of campaign donations to Democrats earlier this year, Republican incumbents in highly competitive races in the House have a substantial cash advantage going into the final weeks before the midterm elections.

Democrats spent more heavily over the summer and early autumn than their Republican rivals in pivotal House districts, leaving themselves at a disadvantage of more than 2 to 1 in money on hand, according to a Washington Post analysis of the latest campaign disclosures.

"What this means is that Republicans have the wherewithal to slow down the tide that's been running against them this year," said Michael J. Malbin, executive director of the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute, which tracks election funding.

To capture control of the House on Nov. 7, Democrats need to gain 15 seats. Analysts in both parties acknowledge that Republicans are virtually certain to lose at least a handful of seats. But whether that number falls short or surpasses the 15-seat threshold, they agree, could hinge on campaign fundamentals such as the amount of money available to candidates.

At the same time, Democrats are on a better financial footing in open seats -- those in which an incumbent is not running. Of the 12 open House races considered tight, Republicans have more cash on hand in seven of them and Democrats are ahead in five, the Post analysis shows.

Election experts noted that funds raised by candidates are only part of the overall picture. This year, in particular, outside groups and the parties have been spending heavily in districts considered up for grabs.

But the cash in candidates' coffers is a significant factor in congressional contests, said Kent Cooper, co-founder of PoliticalMoneyLine.com, a campaign finance Web site. "It's also the best sign we have now" about which candidates hold an edge as the elections near, he said.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter about elections, identifies 31 House Republicans in closely contested campaigns. According to their financial reports filed over the weekend, they had a total of $32.7 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30, compared with $14.5 million for their Democratic challengers.

The National Republican Congressional Committee circulated an internal memo yesterday -- which a Republican gave to The Post -- noting that GOP candidates hold an average cash advantage of $450,000 in 25 of the most competitive districts.

In most years, this is not unusual. "Incumbents almost always outraise the challengers," said Anthony J. Corrado, a campaign finance expert at Colby College. But in recent congressional elections, incumbents generally outpaced challengers by more than 2 to 1.

What is notable this year, Corrado said, is that Democratic challengers have enough money to stage full-fledged efforts, and that is one reason the election appears to be so close. "Although they haven't matched the incumbents," he said, "challengers are raising the amounts of money that they need to be competitive."
The article goes on to note that while Democrats are holding their own in tight races and in open seat contests, the Republican National Committee holds a four-to-one money edge over the Democratic National Committee.

Funding advantages are one of the structural factors that give the GOP long-term advantages in American politics. Yet, as I've mentioned here previously (see my earlier post on
the great Republican collapse of 2006), even those deeper institutional factors might not be enough to hold off a Democratic assault come election day. I wish it were otherwise, for I see the Democrats -- should they gain power -- as raising taxes, enforcing political correctness, and weakening U.S. resolve against the forces of evil in the global war on terror.

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