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McCain's Petraeus Strategy

Today's New York Times includes an interesting article on Johh McCain. McCain's enjoying renewed fortunes. His campaign's increasingly focused on success in Iraq under the Petraeus counter-insurgency approach, and he has backed away from a close affinity to the White House:

Mr. McCain has entered a pivotal period in what he now sardonically describes as his “lean and mean” campaign, faced with unexpected opportunities but also huge obstacles, two months after many of his supporters had all but written off his campaign, riven with debt and staff dissension. At stop after stop, he has seized on General Petraeus’s report as a validation not only of the so-called surge strategy in Iraq but also of his argument, made long before the White House came to the same conclusion, that victory in Iraq required many more troops there.

But even as he lashes his presidential campaign that much tighter to the war in Iraq, Mr. McCain is seeking to decouple his fortunes from those of Mr. Bush, in the latest chapter of a 10-year relationship that has been at times tortured, at times cordial, at times symbiotic.

So it is that Mr. McCain sprinkles his speeches not with references to Mr. Bush but to General Petraeus, a shift that not only mirrors the White House strategy of putting the military out front but also symbolically encapsulates a recognition of what many Republicans consider to have been a fundamental mistake of Mr. McCain in his candidacy: trying to present himself as Mr. Bush’s anointed successor and ideological heir.

The situation demands that Mr. McCain maintain a balance between continuing to embrace a defining characteristic of Mr. Bush’s presidency, his dogged insistence on fighting on in Iraq, even as he distances himself from the administration. He lauds General Petraeus, portraying him as a hero to cheering crowds — “thank God America is blessed with that kind of leadership,” he said in Sioux City — but also excoriates Donald H. Rumsfeld, the former defense secretary, for the way he led the war.

The goal seems to be to acknowledge both public distress over the war and concerns even among Republicans about the White House’s competence without directly assailing Mr. Bush himself, a step that could still alienate the most loyal of the party’s voters, those who tend to turn out in primaries....At the very least, the confluence of two campaigns — one by Mr. Bush and his supporters to rally public support for the war, and the other by Mr. McCain to effectively jump-start his candidacy — has won Mr. McCain a burst of new attention in the early primary states.

McCain's long been my favorite for the presidency in 2008, but I've been one of those GOP supporters who've bowed to reality and begun to weigh the alternatives.

Thus, I'm pleased McCain's doing much better. I've noted on occasion that I'm pretty much a single-issue voter on the war. Few candidates can claim the credibility and legitimacy on Iraq as can McCain. I think he'd make a fine president, and questions regarding McCain's age and health don't bother me.

For one of the more powerful statements on the goodness of our cause in Iraq, please read or re-read McCain's speech at the New School University, May 2006.

Watching the Republicans

I caught last night's GOP debate on Fox News. One of the biggest issues of the night was Fred Thompson's absence, a point moderator Brit Hume raised as the initial question for the canidates (Thompson announced his entry into the race last night on Jay Leno's late show).

I thought Rudy Giuliani came off the winner, and John McCain made a strong - if stiff - showing.

Giuliani seemed confident and poised. He stayed on message in stressing his leadership in New York City, and didn't harp on the 9/11 attacks. He certainly seems the one to beat at this point in the campaign.

I still like John McCain, of course, even though his campaign's pretty much dropped to the bottom of the barrel organizationally. McCain best represent my interests as a national security voter. Here's an inspiring excerpt from McCain's comments at the debate:

I’ve spent my life on national security issues. I’ve taken unpopular stands because I knew what was right. Back in 2003, amid criticism from my fellow Republicans, I spoke strongly against the then-Rumsfeld strategy which I knew was doomed to failure and caused so much needless sacrifice. I advocated very strongly the new strategy that some Democrats have called the McCain strategy -- (chuckles) -- which it is not, and I believe that the strategy is winning. I know the conflict. I know war. I have seen war. I know how the military works. I know how the government works. I understand national security.

I have led. I had -- I was once the commanding officer of the largest squadron in the United States Navy. I didn’t manage it; I led it.

McCain did well in promoting the surge, particularly in response to Mitt Romney's missteps on the war. Fred Barnes at the Weekly Standard provides a nice analysis of the impact of the debate for McCain's White House chances:

How far McCain went last night in reviving his battered campaign is unclear. A single strong debate performance can't, by itself, resurrect a candidacy. But it can help by guaranteeing McCain more press coverage--and more respectful treatment, at that--and perhaps a bump in the polls that come out almost daily.

By the way, a focus group of 29 New Hampshire Republicans conducted during the debate by pollster Frank Luntz found McCain to be the winner.

I'm hoping McCain can ressurrect some of his 2000 New Hampshire magic. I'm not so sure he'll be able to, however, especially with his problems of money and staff plaguing his organization.

McCain's Public Funding Problem

Breaking news reports suggest that John McCain's presidential campaign has met the eligiblity for public election financing through the Federal Election Commission (see Liberty Pundit and The Politico).

This is an interesting development, either signaling new life for McCain's once-frontrunner campaign or the best new measure of just how desperate his White House bid really is.

Here's some background from The Politico:

John McCain on Tuesday became the first 2008 presidential candidate to qualify for taxpayer dollars for the primary election.

McCain’s application and qualification for the funds is likely to be interpreted by opponents as a desperate move, even though it does not lock him into the public financing system.

Jill Hazelbaker, a spokeswoman for McCain, said: “This isn't a sign of desperation — it's a sign of prudence and should be interpreted as such.”

McCain has lagged behind the Republican front-runners in the polls and in fundraising. Participating in the public financing system would allow him in the coming months to get an infusion of loans by borrowing against the promise of taxpayer dollars.

But the system is a trade-off, since it would also cap at about $50 million the amount of cash his campaign can spend during the primary — a limitation that would go into effect immediately.

The leading contenders for the nomination will likely quickly eclipse that level of spending, potentially putting McCain at a distinct disadvantage in early states.

Read the whole thing. Campaign analysts have touted a "$100 million entry fee" for the top canididates to be considered viable players by the time of the first presidential primary contests in early 2008.

There's a bitter irony here for McCain: The ability of both George Bush and John Kerry to each raise more than $250 million in the primaries in the 2004 presidential election is a direct consequence of the new fundraising regime arising out of the 2002 McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform legislation. Now McCain finds himself unable to match that level of money power himself, and he'll be relegated to utlilizing a public funding system he himself made impotent.

Top-tier candiates nowadays forego public "matching funds" for the primaries because with individual contribution limits now at $2000 per person it's easily possible to raise and spend way more money than would be permitted under the federal spending caps. If McCain takes public funding, he'll be limited to $21 million dollars at the start of the primaries (as reported by The Politico), likely to be a dramatically lower figure than his top rivals for the nomination.

Also, the top candidates this year have indicated that they won't take public money even in the general election campaign, an unprecedented development. The way things are going, McCain, ever the political reform maverick, won't be among them. The Arizona Senator's best days as a top White House prospect were back in 2000, when the rules of the campaign game were different, and more ameniable to his come-from-behind insurgent style.