Republicans Losing Grip on Business Vote

Today's Wall Street Journal reports that the GOP is losing support among business groups, a trend that could prove to be one of the most important developments in partisan identification in generations:

The Republican Party, known since the late 19th century as the party of business, is losing its lock on that title.

New evidence suggests a potentially historic shift in the Republican Party's identity -- what strategists call its "brand." The votes of many disgruntled fiscal conservatives and other lapsed Republicans are now up for grabs, which could alter U.S. politics in the 2008 elections and beyond.

Some business leaders are drifting away from the party because of the war in Iraq, the growing federal debt and a conservative social agenda they don't share. In manufacturing sectors such as the auto industry, some Republicans want direct government help with soaring health-care costs, which Republicans in Washington have been reluctant to provide. And some business people want more government action on global warming, arguing that a bolder plan is not only inevitable, but could spur new industries.

Already, economic conservatives who favor balanced federal budgets have become a much smaller part of the party's base. That's partly because other groups, especially social conservatives, have grown more dominant. But it's also the result of defections by other fiscal conservatives angered by the growth of government spending during the six years that Republicans controlled both the White House and Congress.

The article cites polling data indicating a decline in business professionals identifying as Republican (down about 7 points since 2004). But business interests aren't the only groups defecting from the Republican fold. The GOP is facing major divides across various voter constituencies, not just on Iraq and fiscal policy, but also on immigration and social issues such as abortion and gay rights.

Also key is the appearance of Republican incompetence - for many partisans the GOP can't seem to get things right, like on the Justice Department's firing of U.S. attorneys under Alberto Gonzales, or on veteran's medical care and the Walter Reed disaster (see also Time's cover story from May, How The Right Went Wrong, which argues that conservatives have achieved much of their Reagan-era agenda, and may need a time out of power for recuperation).

Some of the criticisms are unfounded, for example, on fiscal policy, where the Bush tax cuts have resulted in increased federal tax receipts since 2005, and have contributed to the post-9/11 economic expansion.

But I do think overall that the GOP will be spending some time in the political wilderness. The Journal story concludes with some references to Pew Research Center polling data on public support for traditional values. According to Pew, Americans are less attached to "old-fashioned values about family and marriage" and the public's backing for international policies of "peace through strength" have declined as well.

In my view I see the changing partisan tides as reflecting not so much deep cultural or ideological shifts in the American electorate, but rather a yearning for something new, a willingness to give the other side a shot, for example, by electing a Democrat to the White House. In other words, we're simply seeing a natural swing of the political pendulum away from the dominant mode of politics represented by the party in power this last few years.

Recent polling data confirms the point, with Gallup finding last week that Americans are looking for some decisive policy leadership, governmental competence, integrity, and performance, and less partisan animosity. It's still some time until November 2008, and I wouldn't write off the GOP altogether, but the current period augurs better for the Democratic Party than in any time in the last few decades.

Poll Finds Partisan Reactions to Petraeus

Via Memeorandum: A new survey from the Pew Research Center finds that Americans view favorably the proposals of General David Petraeus on Iraq progress and expected troop withdrawals in 2008:

Last week's congressional testimony by General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, followed by President Bush's address to the nation, has not changed bottom-line public attitudes toward the war in Iraq. However, there has been a modest increase in positive views about the U.S. military effort, accompanied by largely positive public reactions to General Petraeus' recommendations.

Most Americans (57%) who heard at least something about Petraeus' report say they approve of his recommendations for troop withdrawals, which President Bush has endorsed.

Yet, beyond the broad numbers, what is deeply striking about this survey is the clear partisanship surrounding evaluations of Petraeus' accuracy and impartiality, as well as other issues:

About three-quarters of Republicans (76%) and half of independents who heard about the report believe that Gen. Petraeus was accurately describing the current situation in Iraq. Reaction among Democrats is more skeptical. Just a third of Democrats say he accurately described the situation while 49% say he made things seem better than they really are.

Democrats clearly evince more robust antiwar (or anti-military) tendencies in the poll:

Two-thirds (67%) of Republicans today believe the U.S. is making progress in defeating the insurgents in Iraq, up from 53% in February. But very few Democrats (16%) or independents (31%) agree with this assessment, and views have remained unchanged throughout the year. Similarly, Republicans have become substantially more optimistic about progress in preventing a civil war, while Democrats and independents remain generally gloomy. And while there has been an across-the-board rise in optimism about reducing the number of civilian casualties, the gains are far more substantial among Republicans. As a result of these differences, the partisan divide in outlook about the war is far larger now than at the start of the year.

More partisanship can be seen in the findings on those supporting a troop drawdown. While a majority of Americans (54 percent) favors a troop pullout, only 18 percent favor an immediate drawdown. Thirty-four percent favor withdrawing troops over the next year or two.

If the 34 percent figure is added to those who favor keeping U.S. forces in Iraq (39 percent), a full 73 percent of Americans supports maintaining the deployment over the next couple of years, with only a gradual pullout!

This interpretation of the data is not what most people will find in the press, and especially not among hard left bloggers (see, for example, Daily Kos' interpretation of the findings, or those at the Talking Points Memo.)

The fact remains that Americans want to ensure a stable Iraq before removing American troops from the country.

Take a look at more of the data. A deep partisan divide characterizes support for the war, but general trends are favorable: The numbers of Americans seeing progess on military goals are going up. The numbers of Americans seeing a reduction in civilian casualties are going up. The numbers seeing increased progress in defeating the insurgency are going up!

The United States is making progess in this war, and the public recognizes it.

A balanced assessment of the opinion environment on Iraq requires one to go beyond assessment of Petraeus' likeability to the hard numbers evaluating success on the ground. The evidence is striking. These data should be trumpeted by the media and across the blogosphere. There's no call for a precipitous withrawal from Iraq, and Americans recognize the clear, substantial gains being achieved under the administration's strategic and tactical adjustments.

Americans Oppose Immediate Iraq Withdrawal

Today's Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll finds that a large majority in the U.S. opposes an immediate troop pullout from Iraq. The poll also finds President Bush picking up some support for his war policies, although the Democrats have some favorable opinion trends to anticipate as the political calendar unfolds:

Public discontent with the Iraq war has eased slightly, a new Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll shows, suggesting President Bush may have a little more maneuvering room at a critical point in debates over war costs and troop levels.

As Mr. Bush prepares to follow congressional testimony by the top general in Iraq, David Petraeus, with a televised speech to the nation tonight, the poll shows an uptick in support for the president's handling of the war as well as a small increase in the proportion of Americans who believe the troop surge is helping and that victory remains possible.

Those shifts in public opinion remain modest. Solid majorities continue to disapprove of the president's performance and say victory in Iraq isn't possible and that the war hasn't been worth its human and financial costs. "There's been no surge from the American people," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican counterpart Neil Newhouse.

Yet only one in four Americans say troops should leave now regardless of conditions on the ground.

The article suggests the next line of attack for hard left opponents of the war:

Some Democratic congressional leaders already are shifting the debate in reaction to indications that Mr. Bush has stemmed his slide -- moving it away from withdrawal timelines and toward their contention that the administration is pursuing an open-ended commitment to American involvement. That represents a political challenge for Republican candidates in 2008, even if Mr. Bush is able to sustain his policy.

Actually, I think it represents a greater challenge for Democrats and their antiwar allies. We're still in Germany, Japan, and South Korea, and I find it unrealistic to expect the U.S. not to maintain a forward troop presence in Iraq for years, if not decades, to come.

Public Sees Iraq Improving Under Surge

Today's Washington Post reports that while Americans remain weary of the Iraq war, there's been a marked improvement in assessments of U.S. progress in combatting the insurgency (via Memeorandum):

Most Americans think this week's report from Army Gen. David H. Petraeus will exaggerate progress in Iraq, and few expect it to result in a major shift in President Bush's policy. But despite skepticism about the Petraeus testimony and majority support for a U.S. troop reduction in Iraq, there has also been a slight increase in the number who see the situation there as improving.

The findings, from a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, underscore the depth of public antipathy toward the Iraq war, the doubts about the administration's policies and the limited confidence in the Iraqi government to meet its commitments to restore civil order.

Fifty-eight percent, a new high, said they want to decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq. And most of those who advocated a troop reduction said they want the drawdown to begin either right away or by the end of the year. A majority, 55 percent, supported legislation that would set a deadline of next spring for the withdrawal of American combat forces. That figure is unchanged from July.

Only about a third believed the United States is making significant progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq, most said the buildup has not made much difference, and a majority said they do not expect the troop increase to improve the security situation over the next few months. Just one-third were confident the Iraqi government can meet its political and security goals.

At the same time, however, there has been a six-point increase since July in the percentage of those who said the additional U.S. forces have improved the situation in Iraq (up to 28 percent) and a nine-point jump in the proportion of those who think the buildup will make things better (up to 43 percent). When Bush announced the troop increase in January, 57 percent said the United States was losing the war in Iraq. Now, 48 percent have said so. About a third said the United States is winning the war.

The public's baseline judgment on the war is little changed -- more than six in 10 said the war is not worth fighting, a sentiment that has been a majority view for nearly three years.

But though the public assessment of progress in Iraq remains largely negative, most expected Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, to express a rosier view when he begins his congressional testimony tomorrow. Only about four in 10 said they expect the general to give an accurate accounting of the situation in Iraq. A majority, 53 percent, said they think his report will try to make the situation in Iraq look better than it really is.

These are interesting findings. Especially significant, I would argue, is that less than majority of Americans considers the U.S. losing in Iraq. And those numbers seeing improvement under the surge have gone up considerable. The title of the Post article is putting a more negative spin on the data than would seem warranted.

Other data here simply confirm what is basic to American public opinion and war: The public likes U.S. combat forces to go in hard and heavy, completing the mission with as little casualties as possible. Yet, when the public sees clear national security interests at stake, support will remain firm.

The current war has not had the benefit of the best public relations and marketing it might have had. That said, the upward trend lines show that the public will back a long campaign as long as there are signs of success in the mission.

Sure, I lot of Americans expect to see a spin on the troop increase this week in General Petraeus' testimony (although Petraeus has stated he'd provide an nonpartisan analysis of the war). That's understandable, especially with all the nasty partisanship that's been going on, and not to mention the Democrats' unending attempts to call the war a failure.